In recent years, with the vigorous development of my country’s network digital technology, the process of industrial digitalization has been accelerating, and new formats and models have grown rapidly. The “14th Five-Year Plan” outline mentioned that the modernization level of the industrial chain has been significantly improved. The digital supply chain is an important link in promoting the stability of the industrial chain supply chain and unblocking the circulation of the national economy.
The digital supply chain optimizes the entire chain of traditional goods trade, unblocks information exchange channels, establishes a digital information ecosystem, promotes the digital development of the foreign trade industry, and rapidly develops digital new foreign trade represented by cross-border e-commerce. Industry experts analyzed that by 2035, 50% of China’s import and export trade volume is expected to be completed through cross-border e-commerce.
my country’s 2B transaction model has successfully broken through and is about to enter a period of large-scale growth and a stage of domestic and international dual circulation growth. According to the digital supply chain model of “platform as supplier”, B2B industrial Internet platforms with both high growth rates and sustainable profitability have emerged in the procurement and sales fields of production materials and non-core technology production materials of Chinese companies. The transaction volume of some companies has already included the performance of cross-border e-commerce, and B2B’s annual revenue growth of 50% has become a consensus goal set by many outstanding companies.
Autonomous cross-border e-commerce independent stations and decentralized social traffic have become new growth engines, forming a dual-power mechanism with large cross-border e-commerce platforms. The active and passive shopping needs of global consumers are within the coverage of cross-border online retail services, which will support cross-border online retail to maintain a growth rate of more than 20% for a considerable period of time.
Industrial digitalization has further enhanced China’s supply chain advantages. The industrial Internet has greatly eliminated the asymmetry between overseas demand and domestic supply, and is accelerating the popularization and application of simulation design, intelligent plate making, intelligent scheduling and CNC production equipment to factories. Compared with the order-based production model once every few months, companies use data insight tools and intelligent customer service to obtain overseas consumers’ preferences in terms of functions, styles, prices, etc. every day, and connect with flexible supply chains, which will continue to give birth to new consumer brands in major market segments. Overseas brand companies with annual revenues of tens of billions and hundreds of billions of yuan are expected to appear in waves in multiple industries.
The global cross-border e-commerce mesh collaboration structure is taking shape, and the industrial chain, value chain, and delivery chain will be connected into lines and networks in many countries and regions. International cooperation such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), Silk Road e-commerce and the Digital Silk Road is expected to play a major role.
Referring to my country’s online retail sales, which grew from 19.3 billion yuan in 2005 to 11.7 trillion yuan in 2020, the compound annual growth rate in 15 years exceeded 50%. With the accelerated penetration of online marketing, online transactions, and online delivery in the field of foreign trade import and export, the General Administration of Customs has also broadened the statistical caliber of cross-border e-commerce. According to preliminary customs statistics, China’s cross-border e-commerce imports and exports in 2020 were 1.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.1%. According to the annual compound growth rate of 20%, the import and export volume of cross-border e-commerce will exceed 26 trillion yuan in 2035. At the same time, the total value of my country’s import and export of goods trade in 2020 was 32.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.9% over 2019, and an increase of 3.4% over 2018.
In the next 15 years, digital technology and global industrial transformation will bring many unpredictable surprises. 2021-2035 will be a stage of large-scale development of cross-border e-commerce with all-round growth, global mesh collaboration, digital integration, and wide-caliber statistics.