In any case, the implementation of the new cross-border e-commerce policy has become a fact. The one-year delay in adjustment may be more to leave enough room for the regulatory authorities to further refine the policy, and also to sound the alarm for those cross-border e-commerce players who have seized market share by burning money and subsidies.
In fact, from the series of adjustments made by major cross-border e-commerce platforms after the launch of the new policy, we can have a general understanding of the status of the cross-border e-commerce industry one year later.
Under normal circumstances, domestic cross-border e-commerce platforms mainly adopt two forms of logistics: one is the bonded warehouse stocking model, which is typically represented by Tmall Global, JD Global Shopping, NetEase Kaola, etc.; the other is the cross-border direct mail model, mainly including Yangmatou, hai360 Overseas Shopping, etc. In order to effectively control the cost pressure caused by the bonded stocking model, since the new policy was implemented in April, major cross-border e-commerce platforms have begun to establish a large number of overseas storage centers, and the proportion of cross-border direct mail has increased significantly.
NetEase Kaola not only has large logistics and storage centers in the United States and Hong Kong, but also has established multiple logistics and storage centers in Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia and other places after the implementation of the new policy. JD Global Shopping not only has international logistics and warehousing centers in Japan, South Korea, the United States, Europe, Australia and Canada, but it will also further increase the platform brand direct supply share in the future and invest more resources in the layout of overseas warehouses.
From the current actual development situation, the volume of cross-border direct mail orders has not been greatly affected, but this does not mean that the regulatory authorities will not restrict it through policy adjustments. In addition to the logistics link, payment, refund, tax rebate and other aspects may cause various problems due to policy adjustments. In addition, the large-scale overseas warehouse construction by domestic cross-border e-commerce players has also directly led to a substantial increase in overseas warehousing costs. As to whether this method can help merchants reduce the cost pressure brought about by price increases, there is no clear answer at present.
After the policy adjustment, the bonded import model will bear greater price increase pressure, and the user loss situation will be more serious. Many cross-border e-commerce platforms such as Tmall Global and JD Global Shopping have begun to accelerate the pace of establishing warehousing centers overseas, and this collective action in a short period of time has directly led to a rapid increase in the rental price of joint storage.
However, judging from the content of the new tax reform policy, the regulatory authorities have clearly pointed out that the two modes of cross-border direct mail and bonded area operation shall implement a unified regulatory policy, and there is no obvious difference in the access rules for goods in overseas warehouses and bonded warehouses. However, overseas warehouses are obviously at a disadvantage in terms of logistics timeliness. Some goods that can be delivered to users in 1-2 days through bonded areas will take 1-2 weeks to be delivered through overseas joint delivery, which is obviously unacceptable to ordinary consumers.
In fact, overseas warehouses have long existed in the strategies of cross-border e-commerce platforms. For example, NetEase Kaola established a storage center in Los Angeles in 2015. From the development strategy of the e-commerce platform itself, the establishment of overseas storage centers as its business scale continues to expand can better strengthen the supply chain management capabilities. However, if warehouses are blindly established overseas due to the stimulus of the new tax reform policy, it will not only lead to an increase in costs, but also cause a large outflow of tax revenue. At that time, the regulatory authorities are likely to introduce relevant policies to restrict it.